A 'new form of resource nationalism' is reshaping the gold trade, according to a Nikkei Asia report: producing countries are capturing more value at home through domestic refining, export taxes and central-bank purchases of local output.
Laos set up the Lao Bullion Bank to refine its gold domestically, Indonesia imposed export duties of up to 15% from 2026, and China restricts gold exports as a rule. Analysts say the trend could put upward pressure on prices over the medium to long term.
Goldman Sachs calls central-bank demand 'nearly all' of the work behind its $5,400 end-2027 gold forecast, with its nowcast of official buying running at about 91 tonnes a month — more than five times the pre-2022 average. Producer hoarding removes supply its model doesn't even count.
