StoneX market analyst Matt Simpson says gold’s bears are in control for now — but $4,000 may prove a stubborn floor and the base for a countertrend rebound.
CME positioning shows traders still net-long yet trimming: large speculators and managed funds cut longs over the past five weeks, and managed funds raised gross shorts last week. Options markets are slightly bearish too, with demand for puts outweighing calls.
Technically, he puts support at the high-volume node near $4,082 and the $4,100 handle, with resistance at the monthly pivot around $4,300. His playbook: fade rallies toward $4,000, where gold is likely to find support and stage a rebound.
Simpson adds that gold needs the dollar to stop accelerating before a meaningful low can form.
