State Street's October 2026 Monthly Gold Monitor notes that spot gold fell 6.3% in September as the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points and the dollar climbed to two-month highs, yet the yellow metal still proved resilient. US-listed gold ETFs drew $11.7 billion of inflows in the third quarter — including $3.7 billion of net new purchases in September — reversing the sector's $5.6 billion of outflows in Q2. The team holds a base-case forecast of $4,750–$5,500 per ounce by the end of Q1 2027, though with the odds trimmed from 70% to 60% amid Fed and dollar headwinds.
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