Economist Robin Brooks, bullish on gold via the debasement trade, argues the metal's 65% surge in 2025 was powered by Fed easing — Powell's dovish Jackson Hole keynote was the key turning point — and that another major rally needs the same catalyst. Markets still price hikes through the end of 2027, so it will take those hikes being priced out, via a clear dovish pivot from the Fed, for gold to really take off.
Brooks says two other catalysts could help: Treasury moves to cap long-term yields, like August's surprise buyback announcement, which sent the dollar sharply lower and lifted precious metals; and oil, with Brent above $100 as tanker attacks pick up near the Strait of Hormuz. His bottom line: the building blocks for another rally are coming together — but the Fed isn't quite there yet.
