Pepperstone analyst Dilin Wu sees gold stuck in a ‘good news, limited upside’ pattern: September payrolls came in at just 29,000 against a 90,000 consensus, with the prior two months revised down by a combined 60,000 — and October rate-hike odds collapsed from over 70% to around 14%.
But a firmer dollar and real yields near highs have capped the upside, leaving $4,110 as the critical support: a break below opens a test of $4,000, while reclaiming $4,200 then $4,235 targets $4,300.
Meanwhile US federal debt has crossed $40 trillion and Treasury yields hit their highest since 2002 — yet gold ETF holdings quietly rose from 96.5 to 99 million ounces, a sign, Wu says, of institutions buying the dip. All eyes now turn to Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.
The outlook was published on October 5.
