Natixis precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah sees gold staying under pressure through year-end as climbing oil prices, stubborn inflation and elevated interest rates take their toll — a shift from late August, when he had lifted his year-end target to $5,000 on US debt concerns.
His base case puts gold near $4,100 by December as the Fed weighs another hike. The range of outcomes is wide, though: $3,500 an ounce if the Strait of Hormuz shuts and central banks turn net sellers, or above $5,250 if the strait normalizes and the Fed pivots.
For 2027 he leans more constructive, eyeing roughly $4,750 by year-end on de-dollarization and central-bank buying. He also flags a ‘historically rare’ divergence: physically-backed gold ETF holdings kept rising even as prices fell.
The analysis is summarized from Dahdah’s latest outlook via Kitco News.
