Gold is bouncing off $4,070 support and trading near $4,136 — but the outlook stays mixed. Markets see only an 18% chance of an October Fed hike, yet December odds sit near 80%, keeping Treasury yields around 5.3% and pressure on bullion.
FXLeaders' Arslan Ali Butt flags the tug-of-war: September brought roughly $10 billion of ETF inflows and a 23rd straight month of Chinese central-bank buying — all against a still-restrictive Fed.
Technically, $4,179 is the first major recovery test. A break above it could open the door to $4,222–$4,227; below $4,109, support sits at $4,070 and $4,021.
